Seth's Week 14 NFL Picks
I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving! While we spent last week talking about what we are thankful for in our lives, I will share what teams I am thankful for picking and which I am not. I have gone back through all my picks and calculated a record for my pick results for each team.
Teams I am Thankful For:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3) - After burning me bad in Week 1, I quickly learned to stop picking the Buccs to win.
New York Giants (9-3) - I have a good feel for this team. When they face good offenses they will lose, when they face mediocre offenses they will win.
Denver Broncos (9-3) - Complete opposite of the Buccaneers; picked them to lose in Week 1, haven't picked against them since.
New Orleans Saints (9-3) - Haven't picked against them once. I'm still very high on this team even after the embarrassment on Monday Night Football vs Seattle.
Arizona Cardinals (9-3) - I quickly jumped on the bandwagon. This defense is very legit. If they are facing a bad QB, they will give him a lot of trouble.
Houston Texans (9-3) - The Texans have lost 10 straight games. I don't think it's too hard to pick against them.
Washington Redskins (9-3) - It's fun picking a bad team to almost always lose!
Teams I'm Not Thankful For:
San Diego Chargers (3-9) - I. HATE. THE. CHARGERS. The first two times I picked them to lose going east, they won. The third time they came east I picked them to win and they lost. They have a home game vs a susceptible defense? That doesn't matter! They'll make you look stupid again. The Chargers make me beyond angry.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) - The Bengals are not a good football team. No matter what their record is, if the make the playoffs, or any statistic you can throw at me; I will stick with my feeling that they are not a good football team. Most of their wins have been ugly and if a play or two went the other way, they could have a losing record.
New York Jets (5-7) - The Jets defense is great, their offense is beyond awful. You never know which team is showing up on a given Sunday, so they are very hard to predict.
San Francisco 49ers (5-7) - I don't know why I keep picking against the 49ers...I think I'm just stupid. It won't happen again.
Hopefully I can say next week that I'm thankful for a 16-0 week of picks! So lets get these picks started!
Week 12 Results: 8-5-1
Week 13 Results: 8-8
Game Picks Overall: 114-77-1
Upset of the Week Overall: 6-7 (Picked Jaguars over Texans, Won & Picked Saints over Seahawks, Lost )
Eliminator Challenge Pick: 10-3 (Picked Chiefs over Chargers, Lost & Picked Patriots over Texans, Won)
Against the Spread: 10-14 (Got Steelers +1, Buccs +9, and Jaguars +10 right in Week 12 & Got Patriots -7, Buccaneers +7, and Bears +1 wrong in Week 13 )
Week 14 Picks (Bold Indicates My Pick):
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars: CASE KEENUM! CHAD HENNE! Stars collide in an extra important Thursday Night Football Game on NFL Network!...While I'm obviously joking, this game is actually very important to both teams. The loser of this game will have the inside track at the first overall draft pick with three weeks to go. The Jaguars beat the Texans two weeks ago, so if they win again on Thursday, they will have a better record by two games than the Texans plus the tiebreaker. I still think this Texans defense has enough talent to make some game changing plays and we've yet to see the Jaguars win at home in 2013. Texans by 4.
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers: What looked like a great game before the season is now a meaningless game for two non-contenders. The Falcons may be better off losing this game to help improve their draft position, but this team full of veterans will probably look to finish the season on a high note. The Packers will still be without Aaron Rodgers and if they lose this game, they might as well shut him down for the remainder of the year. Steven Jackson has looked better recently and I think he shreds this awful Packers defense. Falcons by 6.
Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: These two teams may have the most underrated defenses in the NFL. I really like the way the Buccaneers have been playing recently and I think Bobby Rainey will have another big game. The Bills need to take advantage of a banged up Revis if they want to have a chance to win this game. I trust the Buccaneers' offense more than the Bills' and that's why I'm going to take them. Buccaneers by 3.
Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals: I really want to pick the Colts here but after watching a lot of Indy's game last week, I can't bring myself to do it. The Colts' offensive line is one of the worst that I have ever seen in my life and vs a solid front seven like the Bengals, Andrew Luck may have a lot of trouble staying off the ground. The Colts will need a big game from their defense if they want to be able to stay in this game, but I don't think their offense will do enough for it to matter either way. Bengals by 10.
Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots: Good news for Browns fans is Brandon Weeden will not be starting in this game, bad news is they are facing Tom Brady. Unless the Browns force five turnovers and take two to the house, I don't think they have a shot to win this game. The Patriots rarely lose at home and I'd put good money down that that stays the course. Patriots by 13.
Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles: Two of the more intriguing teams in the league face off in Philadelphia. Both teams will be able to complete passes deep to their best receivers in this game but may have a hard time running the football. If the Lions can finally force Nick Foles into a mistake or two, I think they can win this game. However, if Foles continues his zero interception performances, I think the Eagles win once again. I'm having a hard time picking against Foles, I think he's legit. Eagles by 4.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins: The Chiefs have really fallen back down to earth after an incredible start. Luckily for them, they will have a juicy matchup in store for Jamaal Charles vs an awful run defense. As long as this Chiefs defense gets pressure on RG3, I think they can win this won easily. Chiefs by 7.
Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets: The Raiders have shown me a lot recently, the Jets on the other hand have not. Oakland's receivers made some incredible catches on Thanksgiving and should have plenty of opportunities to make more vs a bad Jets' secondary. The only way the Jets can score points is on the ground, a defensive touchdown, or through special teams. I'm going to be taking the team that can actually punch the ball in through the air. Raiders by 10.
Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers: I still think the Dolphins aren't a good team, but give them props for winning a few games with all the distractions around the team. The Steelers offense has looked much better recently and should be able to move the ball down the field at ease in this contest. Both offensive lines aren't good, so there could be a record amount of sacks in this game. Ryan Tannehill can't make mistakes and expect to win this game. Steelers by 10.
Minnesota Vikings @ Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens can get back over .500 with a win to finish off a three game home-stand. The Vikings will be starting Matt Cassel at QB vs a very tough defense, at a very tough stadium to perform at. I expect the Ravens to do what every other team does, and that's stack the box to attempt, and probably fail to stop Adrian Peterson. Joe Flacco may get his pal Dennis Pitta back in this game and regardless shouldn't have a hard time vs the Vikings' bad secondary. Ravens by 14.
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals: Kellen Clemens vs the Cardinals defense in Arizona? That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen for St. Louis. As long as Carson Palmer avoids turning the ball over too much, Arizona should come away with a win relatively easily. The Rams need Tavon Austin to make big plays if they want to even make this one close. They should also look to get Jared Cook involved as the Cardinals are the worst team in football at defending tight ends. Cardinals by 14.
New York Giants @ San Diego Chargers: I've been impressed with the way Andre Brown has been running the football for the Giants. He should have another big day this Sunday vs the Chargers' bad run defense. The team who turns the ball over the least and establishes the run game, will come away with the win. Hopefully it's the Giants because I can't stand these Chargers. I'll probably lose picking against them again! Giants by 7.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers: I'm sorry Seahawk fans for not picking your team to make the playoffs before the season. I'm sorry for saying Russell Wilson is an overrated quarterback. I'm sorry for picking against your team at home on Monday Night Football. I'm not sorry for taking the 49ers to win this game because they need it a lot more than you guys do. 49ers by 3.
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints: The Panthers and Saints are tied on-top of the NFC South. They play each other twice in the next three weeks to determine the division winner. While the Panthers defense has been very impressive, I can't pick against the Saints in the Super Dome. The Panthers only chance of winning this game is if they get non-stop pressure on Drew Brees. Saints by 6.
Seth's Upset of the Week:
Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears: Do you remember what happened last year when the Cowboys faced the Bears on Monday Night Football? The Cowboys got embarrassed and lost by 18, with Tony Romo throwing five interceptions. The Bears defense is not good anymore but their offense is. Both of these offenses filled with talented skill position players should have good days vs two anemic defenses. I just can't pick the Cowboys vs a good team in December until they prove me otherwise. Bears by 4.
Seth's Eliminator Challenge Pick:
Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos: Does anyone really think Ryan Fitzpatrick can out-duel Peyton Manning in Denver? If anyone does, please send me a tweet @Ravennation21 and I'll recommend a doctor for you to visit. Broncos by 21.
Seth's Against The Spread Picks of the Week:
Raiders (+2.5): The Jets offense is so bad that I feel pretty confident taking the points here. I like what I've seen from Oakland and I think they win this game straight up.
Steelers (-3): The Steelers are a better team than the Dolphins. Their offense will be able to score plenty and I doubt Ryan Tannehill will be able to do the same.
Saints (-3): The Saints at home on a national TV game is almost always a blowout win. I don't think this is going to be a blowout, but I don't think the Saints win this game by less than a touchdown.
That's it for this week. If you'd like to see me tweet about football during the week please follow me at @RavenNation21. I'd also be glad to answer any fantasy football questions you may have for me. Have a great Week 14!