Seth's Week 12 NFL Picks
I had a pretty good week of picks in Week 11. 11-4 is pretty darn good to go along with both my upset of the week and eliminator challenge pick being right! I got all three of my against the spread picks wrong but that's why I don't gamble away real money!
We've got a very solid slate of games in Week 12 which have major playoff implications. So lets see if I can have another good week of picking games. Lets get this show on the road!
Week 11 Results: 11-4
Game Picks Overall: 98-64
Upset of the Week Overall: 5-6 (Picked Panthers over Patriots, Won)
Eliminator Challenge Pick: 9-2 (Picked Cardinals over Jaguars, Won)
Against the Spread: 7-11 (Got Lions -2.5, Browns +5.5, and Chargers -1.5 wrong)
Week 12 Picks (Bold Indicates My Pick):
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons: For anyone who forgot just how bad the Falcons are, they gave up 41 points to the Buccaneers on Sunday. I know it's on a Thursday night and the Saints play much better at home, but Drew Brees and Co. are used to playing at the Georgia Dome at this point. However, they are also used to playing against a team that will give them competition. There will be no competition here. Saints by 17.
Chicago Bears @ St. Louis Rams: The Rams are the hardest team for me to predict this year. Before the season I picked them to make the playoffs and shortly after I realized they weren't any good. Of course in Week 10 they go into Indianapolis and win by 30. I don't think I feel great about picking the Rams at all this year but this one I think I'm going to get right. The Bears run defense is awful and Rams' running back Zac Stacy should have a field day on Sunday. As long as the Rams defense contains the Bears' talented skill players, they can win this game at home. Rams by 4.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns: Come here Cleveland, give me a hug. Oh? You don't want a hug from me because I have your old Browns' team that has won two Super Bowls since their departure from your city? I'm sorry! I really thought the Browns had the Bengals on the ropes last weekend with a 13-0 lead in the 2nd quarter, but it all went downhill from there. Two blocked punts, a boatload of turnovers, and 31 unanswered Bengals' points later and this was a blowout loss. The Steelers looked impressive in their win vs the Lions and they'll need another big game from Ben Roethlisberger to win this game. I just trust the Steelers offense more than Cleveland's. Steelers by 7.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions: The Lions really made me look foolish last week. I really thought that they would look explosive vs the Steelers' mediocre defense, but they decided it'd be smart to abandon the best wide receiver we've seen in the NFL since Jerry Rice in the 2nd half. The Buccaneers have won two games in a row and have been playing very well on the defensive side of the ball. Calvin Johnson vs Darrelle Revis should be a very fun matchup to watch. I don't think this is a shoe-in Lions win but I still don't think Mike Glennon is good enough to win on the road. Lions by 3.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers: Scott Truzman? Josh Saltine? James Tolls? Oh that's right, the Packers' QB is named Scott Tolzien! I have a feeling there will be more turnovers than touchdowns by both QBs in this game. Christian Ponder did have a great game vs the Packers last year but that was in the comfort of the Metrodome. Whichever defense does a better job stuffing the opposing team's star running back will win this game. I trust the Packers' run defense more than the Vikings'. Packers by 3.
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins: The Panthers have a legitimate shot at winning the NFC South and getting a bye for the 2013 playoffs. After beating the 49ers and Patriots in back to back weeks, the competition softens as Cam Newton and the 7-3 Panthers head to Miami. The Dolphins' offensive line can't stop pass rushers from bullying Ryan Tannehill and I expect the Panthers to be in his face all day long. I think the Panthers could finish 12-4 and they will get closer to that record this week. Panthers by 14.
New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens: Ugh. Down by 3 at the goal-line, inside a minute with a chance to win and we settle for overtime. After the two week strategy of picking against the Ravens, I'm going back to being a biased Ravens' fan. This week I seem to be in the majority. Geno Smith looks absolutely pathetic on the road and the Ravens' defense has looked very good at home. It would be huge for the Ravens if Ray Rice is finally back to his usual self. Ravens by 13.
Tennessee Titans @ Oakland Raiders: Which QB matchup is worse?: Scott Tolzien vs Christian Ponder or Ryan Fitzpatrick vs Matt McGloin? Matt McGloin actually had a good game vs the Texans in his NFL debut last Sunday and will have a tough test this week vs a solid Titans' secondary. Just like in the Packers/Vikings game, whoever runs the ball better will most likely win this game. I like the way Rashad Jennings has run the ball and this game is in Oakland, so I'll give the slight edge to the black and silver. Raiders by 3.
Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals: Aside from the Broncos vs Patriots, this may be the game of the week. After the Cardinals have won three in a row and the 49ers have dropped the past two contests, they both are tied with Chicago and Detroit for the 2nd wild card. I've been pumping up this Cardinals defense for a while now and I think they should give the Colts' terrible offensive line a lot of fits. The Colts need to force Carson Palmer into stupid mistakes if they want to win this game on the road. Cardinals by 7.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants: Uh-oh, it's happening again! The Giants started 0-6 and now have won four in a row. Is the Big Blue turnaround due to an improving defense or a bunch of games vs mediocre QBs? I've been saying for a while that the Washington Redskins defense is the worst in the NFL but that crown can now be passed over to Dallas. If the Cowboys' defense without Sean Lee can't stop Eli Manning in the air and Andre Brown on the ground, it will be very tough for them to win on Sunday. Eli and Romo have been pick machines in their career, who will be the QB to throw the back-breaking pick this time? I have to trust the Giants here. Giants by 3.
Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots: It's always an all-time classic when Tom Brady and Peyton Manning face each other. It's very rare to see the Patriots as underdogs at home but that's exactly what they will be this Sunday. They will be fired up after a controversial loss on Monday Night Football and could give the Broncos a run for their money. I still think the Broncos will be able to take advantage of this banged up Patriots defense. A heavy dose of Knowshon Moreno should help lead the Broncos to a hard fought victory. Broncos by 7.
San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Redskins: Watch out San Francisco, Arizona is on your tail! The 49ers cannot afford to lose this Monday night vs the Redskins and luckily for them I don't think they will. You know how I feel about this Redskins' defense by now and I think this 49ers offense has enough weapons to exploit their deficiencies. Washington's locker room is a mess right now with Mike Shanahan pretty much out the door and RG3 stirring up some controversy. I think the 49ers get back on track. 49ers by 10.
Seth's Upset of the Week:
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans: I can't believe I'm doing this but this just states how bad the Texans have been. Houston has lost eight games in a row after starting 2-0. While both of these teams are terrible and the Texans are playing at home, I've seen more out of the Jaguars the past two weeks. I know I'll hate myself if this looks bad on Sunday, but I'm picking the Jaguars to get the upset win. Jaguars by 4.
Seth's Eliminator Challenge Pick:
San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs: Dear San Diego, THANKS FOR NOTHING! Every time they came East this year I've felt confident in my pick and have been dead wrong. It's pretty pathetic that they couldn't beat a lousy Miami Dolphins team that has more controversy around it than talent. Now they go into Arrowhead to play a pissed off Chiefs' team that lost their first game of the year last Sunday. I expect a heavy dose of Jamaal Charles to lead the Chiefs to an easy victory. Chiefs by 17.
Seth's Against The Spread Picks of the Week:
Buccaneers (+9): I really like the way the Buccaneers defense has looked recently and it seems like the Lions let the majority of their opponents stay in the game. I think the Buccs only lose by three.
Jaguars (+10): This line is WAAAAAAAAAAAAAY too high. Does Vegas watch the games? The Texans are awful! I don't know if the Jaguars will win this game but I doubt the pathetic Texans will blow them out. Gimme the points!
Steelers (+1): I just can't trust the Browns offense, no matter how good the defense looks. The Steelers offense also finally looks pretty good. I think the Steelers winning this game by atleast a field goal is pretty safe.
That's it for this week. If you'd like to see me tweet about football during the week please follow me at @RavenNation21. I'd also be glad to answer any fantasy football questions you may have for me. Have a great Week 12!